Worst possible scenarios...more from National Geographic:
It's human nature to assume--sometimes contrary to evidence--things will carry on as we've always known them. Even scientists can succumb to this tendency as they try to make climate predictions for the future, says Harvard's Steven Wofsy. "People in the climate-modeling world often tend to think linearly," Wofsy says. For instance, if a given amount of carbon in the atmosphere has created one degree Fahrenheit of warming, it might seem reasonable to expect the same amount added again would spur another degree of warming.
Unfortunately, the world doesn't appear to work that way. "When change occurs," says Wofsy, "it often occurs not linearly, but catastrophically."
Climate science has several nightmare scenarios--including ice sheet collapse and major ocean current disruption--all grouped under a common term: positive feedbacks.
One of the gravest possible scenarios is the thawing of huge quantities of organic material locked in frozen soil beneath Arctic landscapes like one in northern Canada. A cycle of thawing and freezing is normal at the surface, creating distinctive Arctic polygon patterns. But when the northern warming passes a certain threshold, scientists fear large amounts of buried organic material will decompose, releasing primarily methane, a greenhouse gas significantly more efficient at trapping heat than CO2. Earth's atmospheric greenhouse warming would greatly intensify. Humanity's direct carbon contribution through burning of fossil fuels would have been small--but just enough to tip the balance tward runaway climate change. Some scientists suspect that such a scenario unfolded at the end of the Permian period 250 million years ago, leading to the extinction of 95 percent of Earth's species.
"The positive feedbacks are the scariest thing in my view," says NOAA climate scientist Peter Tans. "It means climate change is feeding on itself. At some point, there would be little we could do to stop it."
National Geographic Special Edition, on newstands until June 22, 2008.
I really, really hope they're wrong. libby
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